![]() If you ever think that the terms and quoted APR on your credit cards are complicated, try venturing into those betting websites once. ![]() Understand the bookmarkers: how do Odds work? And I enter a new game against a new opponent: it’s me against the bookies. ![]() ![]() This is when I started looking into sports betting. And I did not even have to do much besides asking the beloved Poisson processes to chunk out numbers. A 10% edge over an expert’s opinion is huge. Interestingly, Merson predicted a 2–2 draw between Arsenal and Manchester United, saying “ both teams will have a go at each other and there will be goals.” My algorithms, by averaging the number of goals Arsenal scored and conceded at home, assigning a slight edge and winning probability of 45% to Arsenal, comparing to 27% to Man United. He achieved a 54.9% accuracy, while my Poisson-process algorithm achieved a surprising 64.1% accuracy. Here, I compared the results between 273 matches Merson predicted this season. Right: The Poisson process algorithm got 51+7+117 = 175 matches, a whopping 64.1% Left: Merson’s correctly predicts 150 matches or 54.9%. The confusion matrix that shows how accurate Merson’s and my algorithm’s predictions are, over 273 matches.
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